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Top 5 ways to support creators in the web3 economy

Top 5 ways to support creators in the web3 economy

We’re well into the web3 era now, and blockchain technology has evolved far beyond Bitcoin. As millions and millions of people throughout the world are discovering blockchain for the first time, serious industry creators are now shifting goals. 

Let’s explore this new outlook of blockchain development that can best benefit creators with new opportunities and more flexibility than ever before. 

Here are the Top 5 ways to support creators in the web3 economy.

  1. Build Accessible Onboarding Tools

One of the biggest barriers for creators entering the Web3 space is the steep learning curve of blockchain technology. For several years, this has been a contentious point between defenders and critics of blockchain technology. Interestingly enough, critics and fans tend to agree that one of the leading obstacles for web3 is its unfortunate lack of accessibility.

GalaChain is leading the charge with an unparalleled developer-friendly ecosystem that was created with developer ease-of-access in mind. GalaChain’s creators recognized that empowering developers was the way to ensure that end users are effectively empowered.

Through integration of the TypeScript programming language used in a wide range of traditional dev words, GalaChain gracefully reduces friction for developers transitioning from traditional Web2 tools. Paired with an SDK that includes prebuilt templates and robust documentation, creators can hit the ground running with minimal delay, even with seemingly complex projects like dedicated node networks, token reward infrastructures and more.

  1. Prioritize Scalability Without Sacrificing Speed

Creators thrive in environments where their projects can grow without fear of technical bottlenecks. GalaChain is designed to handle high transaction volumes, ensuring that even the most data-intensive applications can operate seamlessly. Even in its early days, GalaChain has demonstrated this through its own web3 entertainment platforms of Gala Games, Gala Music and Gala Film.

Created on Hyperledger Fabric, GalaChain is a relatively simple and scalable blockchain solution for developers from any industry for a variety of applications. Its ability to maintain high transactional throughput levels provides the scalability necessary for creators to innovate without limits.

  1. Enable Decentralized Ownership

Empowering creators often means giving them more control over their creations. With GalaChain’s decentralization roadmap (outlined in the GalaChain Decentralization White Paper, the platform is enhancing ownership through new features like upgraded governance capabilities and decentralized community input.

The integration of GalaChain’s existing Founder’s Node network into the consensus process will further democratize the ecosystem while maintaining security and performance. Setting GalaChain apart in the blockchain space is its ability for creators to run permissioned channels that are part of the GalaChain ecosystem. These channels operate like privately owned cars on the GalaChain train, using the power of GalaChain to get where they’re going while under total and sole control of the creators that operate them.

  1. Create Low-Cost Ecosystems

High gas fees have been a major hurdle for creators in blockchain ecosystems. GalaChain addresses this by delivering near-zero transaction costs. This makes it feasible for creators to monetize their work efficiently, whether through minting NFTs, building dApps or processing micropayments. By making blockchain adoption affordable, GalaChain ensures creators retain more value from their work.

$GALA is burned for transactional fees throughout the ecosystem, but channel operators will ultimately be in control of their own channel fee structures.

  1. Foster Interoperability

Creators often find themselves limited by isolated blockchain systems with little opportunity to interact with other blockchains. GalaChain breaks these barriers with built-in interoperability features, allowing creators to bridge assets and projects across multiple blockchain networks. This interconnected approach is designed to expand the reach and flexibility of Web3 projects while keeping creators in control.

The creators of GalaChain have always recognized the need for interoperability in web3 for mass adoption to take hold. While creators and pioneers in blockchain tech have been working heads-down to build systems that work, the ones that create a sense of unity throughout the space will reap the greatest rewards. GalaChain is working toward interoperability that will give users and developers more freedom than ever before.

Creator-First Economy of Innovation

The Web3 economy is unlocking new horizons for creators and ecosystems like GalaChain are at the forefront of this transformation. By offering tools, infrastructure and scalability tailored to creators’ needs, GalaChain is making it easier than ever to embrace the decentralized revolution. As we continue to innovate and grow, creators can trust GalaChain to remain a steadfast partner in their Web3 journey.

Interested in building on GalaChain?

Smart Homes Through Private Blockchains

Smart Homes Through Private Blockchains

Remember when stuff didn’t have microchips in it? Well, that time has passed. 

Today we’re absolutely awash in connected gadgets and gear throughout our homes. Think about how many devices you have connected to your WiFi… phone, computer, laptop. Did you remember to count the TV? What about gaming consoles? Security cameras and printers? Do you have smart appliances like a washer/dryer combo or a smart fridge? Smart lights? Yeah… it’s a lot of devices.

This saturation in “smart” technology is only going to get more intense over the next decades. With the growing ubiquity of AI, it’s likely that more of this will be automated soon to some level. 

It’s not only that your WiFi is woefully prepared to handle all these devices (it is), but also that your WiFi is just a normal network. It can’t logically prioritize tasks… that’s all on the devices themselves. As more devices come around, that’ll get harder to manage. Luckily there’s a tool that fits the smart home of the future perfectly — blockchain!

The Smart Home of the Future 

Forgive us if we slip into sci fi a bit here, but look around you. Even compared to 10 years ago, we are living in science fiction today. 

Imagine what the next generation of in-home tech looks like. Will your stove automatically start dinner for you? Will your bookshelf recommend reading material based on your mood? Will your bed retract into the wall if you oversleep like on The Fifth Element? (Notably, I’ve badly wanted this bed-based tech since I was a child.)

There’s already tons of automation in smart homes. People regularly use phone apps to automate feeding pets, time lights or brew coffee first thing in the morning. People really like having stuff done for them, so it’s probably going to get more prevalent to automate household activities.

Will you be able to automate through a simple app when a robot arm is cooking your dinner for you? When your smart home is required to decide whether people can enter your house or not, is that something you really want on a phone app? Wi-fi and apps are simply not suited to this task.

The Internet of Things

The Internet of Things (IoT) refers to a network consisting primarily of independent devices that can communicate and transmit data to other devices. That’s pretty much exactly what your growingly online smart home is. 

An internet of things is distinct from a traditional network, in that devices on an IoT typically receive input through sensors, cameras or external controls rather than a direct interface like a computer would. These are devices that serve functions and typically require connectivity and external information to fill those functions.

Our technology hasn’t quite grown into a fully integrated smart home, interconnected wall to wall… yet. We like technology that makes our lives easier, however, so more and more tools will probably be coming to your home before too long.

With AI growing more powerful by the day, it’s probably fair to say that these devices throughout your home will work together more fluidly in the future. This means more information exchanged between them… and more hurdles for security and efficiency.

Securing a Smart Home

As devices around your home work more intelligently and autonomously, your home network is going to start carrying a lot more sensitive information. Let’s say that your alarm knows when the kids have to be to school, so it wakes you up with enough time to get everyone ready. Your coffee is automatically brewed before you ever get to the kitchen, and your phone readily displays the weather two towns over since it knows you have to run to the carpet store this afternoon.

Your smart devices just tapped into a wealth of information about you and your daily routine to compute your likely schedule for the day. If this is stored as traditional data on your network, anyone who compromises your security would know the following:

  1. Where your kids go to school
  2. When you leave in the morning and wake up
  3. Where you’re going this afternoon and how long you’ll be gone

When you start thinking about the kind of huge data sets that AI needs to make decisions, there’s an absolute pandora’s box of information that a personal AI assistant would need to coordinate your home life. 

It’s scary enough to think a hacker could know when you’ll be coming and going, but data brokers are also drooling over all this extra demographic information. If your AI can predict what you will do and when, they can do the same with the same amount of data.

This is where a private blockchain comes into play. A private blockchain can logically triage tasks from your personal internet of things, while still maintaining robust encryption in the blocks themselves.

Many companies have switched over to internal, private, permissioned blockchains for their sensitive data. With the ease of creating custom environments on GalaChain, this could be done for personal use as well.

Block Houses

The smart home of tomorrow is built on-chain.

On a private blockchain, each of your devices could function as a peer with its own credentials and permissions. They read information they need from blocks created previously in the channel, and any transactions they submit to a new block are verified through the ordering service.

A household AI would act as the approver node for transactions, but a user interface would also have permissions so that you could view the chain as you want. All the actions and data of your devices stay on the private blockchain, not only protected by the security of your network but also gated behind GalaChain’s asynchronous encryption.

This essentially provides your house its own private network. You could go ahead using your direct input devices directly on your main network, but any autonomous activities taken by your kit would process through your private homechain.
Like we said, a fully automated homelife may be in the future… but not that distant of a future. We need to start thinking about how to resolve these issues now, and blockchain is the perfect solution for these kinds of private IoTs.

The tools of tomorrow are built today, and tomorrow’s coming up very, very soon.

Wave of BTC Strategic Reserve plans and crypto legislation introduced in US

Wave of BTC Strategic Reserve plans and crypto legislation introduced in US

In the days following the recent US election victory of Donald Trump, cryptocurrency (especially Bitcoin) has stepped once again into the spotlight as the financial world prepares for what many are considering the most crypto-positive US administration yet.

With a campaign promise from July of this year, Trump notably said he would make the United States the “crypto capital of the planet,” creating a Bitcoin strategic reserve and making huge strides in regulation of cryptocurrency.

What is a Strategic Reserve?

Assets kept as strategic reserves are exactly what they sound like: Official assets held by the government as reserve stores of value and protection against inflation.

The United States’ Bullion Reserve is massive, containing approximately 8000 metric tons of gold in 2024. Other US strategic reserves include grain, natural gas and petroleum. SOURCE

An official Bitcoin Strategic Reserve would establish Bitcoin as a store of value on an internationally recognized scale, likely leading to some form of BTC accumulation race among the nations of the world.

The United States government already holds approximately 207,000 Bitcoin, SOURCE but as 2025 nears, it is becoming more likely that US BTC holdings will be ramped up to 1 million Bitcoin, which constitutes nearly 95% of its total supply. 

With legislation already introduced that could initiate this ongoing BTC purchase, conditions are looking favorable for the US to elevate the status of cryptocurrency by accumulating and holding for years.

Many analysts speculate that US acquisition of Bitcoin as a strategic reserve would lead very quickly to other nation-states following suit. Bitcoin’s max total supply is only 21 million and its deflationary distribution to miners is halved every four years. If the United States adopts this strategic Bitcoin reserve plan, chances are good that the US will indeed be considered the “crypto capital of the planet,” as Donald Trump mentioned during his presidential campaign.

Bitcoin Legislation

Also in the wake of Trump’s victory, US states are now introducing legislation regarding the use of Bitcoin as a strategic reserve form of currency. Pennsylvania is the most notable example, having introduced new legislation last week.

On November 14th, the Pennsylvania House of Representatives introduced its own Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act, a plan that would allocate up to 10% of state funds into BTC in order to protect against inflation and diversify its assets.

The Pennsylvania Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act was written with the help of Satoshi Action Fund, a non profit crypto advocacy group that has created a model bill to introduce Bitcoin strategic reserve plans into state legislation, with Pennsylvania at the forefront of the newly unveiled plan. 

In October, the Pennsylvania House also passed the Bitcoin Rights Bill, also created with the help of Satoshi Action Fund, with an overwhelming majority (176 to 26) from both sides of the aisle.

Satoshi Action Fund is working with policy and lawmakers in multiple states to assist in establishing regulatory frameworks that will advance the adoption of cryptocurrency. Even during a contentious election year, rights and regulations for cryptocurrency owners have emerged as bi-partisan issues that both Democrats and Republicans view as worthy of time and attention.

According to the National Conference of State Legislatures, at least 35 states have crypto-related legislation either introduced or pending in 2024. SOURCE

The Bitcoin Act

First proposed in late July by Wyoming US Senator Cynthia Loomis, the Boosting Innovation, Technology and Competitiveness through Optimized Investment Nationwide (BITCOIN) Act is currently the clearest path to US adoption of the world’s original cryptocurrency on a massive scale that could be a game-changer for all Bitcoiners.

“Bitcoin is transforming not only our country but the world and becoming the first developed nation to use Bitcoin as a savings technology secures our position as a global leader in financial innovation. This is our Louisiana Purchase moment that will help us reach the next financial frontier.”

– Cynthia Loomis

If passed, the “BITCOIN Bill” would:

  • Establish a US “decentralized network of secure Bitcoin vaults.”
  • Implement a 1-million-unit Bitcoin purchase program to acquire 5% of total supply.
  • Be funded by diversification of existing funds in Federal Reserve and Treasury departments.
  • Affirm self-custody rights for private Bitcoin holders.

Read the Bill

Why it Matters

GalaChain is not in the business of predicting the future or speculating on token price action. Still, it’s plain to see that all this crypto news is closely related to the lasting adoption of web3 technology. When a leading economic force like the US government adopts Bitcoin as a strategic reserve currency and implements a state-of-the-art regulatory framework for crypto, a reasonable expectation is for other nations to follow that lead.

Historically, Bitcoin’s successes have usually flowed down into various altcoin projects as early adopters take and diversify projects into more specialized future use-cases.

Gala Loves Bitcoin

Without the pioneering vision of Bitcoin and its leadership on the road to web3’s mass adoption, GalaChain never would have been possible. We are building on the backs of giants, excited to bring the benefits of web3 to wider audiences in multiple industries and with the latest web3 tech advancements.

Whatever the future holds for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, we look forward to new systems that empower users with more freedom and control than ever before.

Interested in building on GalaChain?

Start here

Understanding GalaChain: Blockchain + Utility

Understanding GalaChain: Blockchain + Utility

Bitcoin is the gold standard of blockchain, right? Not exactly. While Bitcoin may be the gold standard of cryptocurrency (Or the block standard of gold? 🤨), its blockchain is actually quite limited in terms of real web3 application.

The BTC blockchain writes data to the ledger. You can reference that immutable data from existing blocks, but it’s just data. Programmable and adaptable code executing from blocks isn’t what it was made for. Though solutions have been created to execute script on BTC’s chain, it’s designed to be a one-way, immutable message.

This is fine for a blockchain like the one used for Bitcoin. After all, its main purpose is to process and verify Bitcoin transactions. If you want to do more with a blockchain, however, you need to create more adaptable infrastructure.

Adaptable Systems

Ethereum solved a lot of the above problem. Using Ethereum, developers can write smart contracts and deploy them to the chain. These are then living pieces of code waiting to serve a function on the chain. Unlike with Bitcoin’s chain, they can be written into the blocks that make up the chain.

The difference between making blocks on the BTC chain and Ethereum is like going from building with a standard jigsaw puzzle to an erector set. The blocks on the chain don’t just come together to build a ledger, they can connect to dApps in all sorts of ways!

This gives blockchain developers a way to build applications and services on the blockchain. Since they are written onto the blocks themselves, it necessarily means that all these smart contracts are open source and readily reviewable by anyone who wants to use them… or even build more functionality on top of them.

Ethereum and other chains like it opened up the floodgates. They create the possibility of a chain that’s not only immutable, but highly interactable. Developers can access a large supply of functionality across chains and use it to build even better tools and resources.

Chains like Ethereum created the possibility of a decentralized internet — a digital system in which functionality is built on immutable and public blocks. Execution of tasks through smart contracts gives the framework to build complex interactions, all through the blockchain.

Privacy and Blockchain

Ethereum has its own limitations, however. On a chain like Ethereum, the ledger is necessarily public. This is amazing for open source development, but what happens when some data needs to stay private? This is a fundamentally limiting factor of chains like Ethereum, as digital activities across our society regularly require the use of privileged data or personal information.

Ethereum development is great for open source software, public tools and independent, collaborative development… but where does a corporation go if they want to build on-chain while protecting user data and proprietary information? There’s nowhere to hide in Ethereum’s blocks.

This is where we come to the idea of a private blockchain. While a blockchain must have a public ledger that can be verified, that ledger doesn’t always need to hold all the information in a transaction. With the basic ideas of encryption, we can create systems where the publicly available information on visible blocks can be easily used to verify history and transactions without the need for sensitive information to broadcast in public.

This all brings us finally to Hyperledger Fabric. Hyperledger Fabric isn’t a blockchain in and of itself, but is rather a framework on which a custom blockchain can be built.

Hyperledger Fabric enables the creation of a type of subnet on the blockchain — channels. Each channel has pluggable consensus and ordering, which means that channel creators can determine many more aspects of their environment than other channels. 

If an enterprise wants to create an internal, centralized channel with permissioned access to transactions and private data masked on the ledger, they could do that just as easily as a channel creator could create a fully open source channel with democratic consensus.

Channels are GalaChain, but they’re also separate instances running underneath it.

Think of it like a train running along a track. Each individual car is heading the same direction with the same velocity, but each can serve a totally different purpose. The design of the club car is vastly different from that of a flat car.

When you’re on or in any individual car, you’re definitely still ‘on the train’. The environment around you, however, depends on which car you’re in. 

Each channel functions underneath GalaChain, with their own separate ledger. While they are still GalaChain, they can function independently of each other.

Next Generation Blockchain

We didn’t whip GalaChain as a proof of concept. If you remember back to the early days of GalaChain, we were demoing a live game at first preview because we wanted to show how we were building something that could do more. We didn’t make it this way because it was easy, we set out to create a blockchain that could facilitate real-world business, entertainment and, most importantly, adoption.

Web3 has moved beyond thought experiments and idealistic demonstrations with limited utility. GalaChain is customizable and adaptable to everyday applications. It’s easy for developers to use and doesn’t require that they problem solve to account for the rigid rules of the network. 

We’re not talking about “the future” anymore. GalaChain is a tool that is useful for projects and organizations of all types now.

In our next edition, we’ll dive into specifics about how GalaChain works in a more technical sense. We’ll look at how permissions and ordering work on GalaChain, specifically in the context of multiple channels.

We know there’s a lot to cover on GalaChain. In this series, we’re trying to walk someone with a basic technical understanding through the fundamentals of GalaChain. If, however, we’ve sufficiently stoked your curiosity and you just need to know more, check out GalaChain’s documentation today!

We’ll see you next time for more Understanding GalaChain!

Goodbye File Cabinets. Hello Decentralized Record Keeping

Goodbye File Cabinets. Hello Decentralized Record Keeping

How many of you have a file cabinet sitting around for records? Do you find it useful… or is keeping all those physical records more of a hindrance than a help?

Blockchain technology has the potential to totally rethink the way we interact with records. Bear with us for a minute here… we’re going to walk you through the riveting history of the file cabinet, and why decentralization is the answer to a problem you didn’t know we had.

From Revolution to Necessity

There was a time when filing cabinets were cutting edge technology. In the late 1890s, the filing cabinet came onto the scene and gained popularity quickly. When you think back to the organizational tools available at the time, it’s not really surprising.

Before the filing cabinet, if you wanted to store and retrieve vital information, you probably kept it in a cellar, safe or ledger. That’s all well and good… but what if you have A LOT of information? 

As business and formal, modern economic systems began to gain steam in the world, it was more and more necessary to have easy access to information and records. For businesses, they’d need to keep customer records for growing regulatory forces and to understand a wider business scope than was previously possible. The advent of mail and telegraph communication brought more remote transactions, making complex balance sheets and receipts. As ownership systems became more formalized, you’d need to prove that you owned things more than with a single deed that entitled you to your whole estate!

So… file cabinets changed the world. Think of doctors, clerks, librarians, museum curators, lawyers — these people had tons of records. Their ability to access them quickly was directly related to their ability to accomplish more.

Fast forward 40 or 50 years after the second world war. A middle class is emerging as a majority of most 1st world countries, and they have an increasing amount of paper records. Printing developments made it easier for written documents and records to be provided to them, and they crammed them full of house deeds, wills, bank statements, voided checks, medical records, birthday cards… the list goes on.

See how fun it was to search for records in bound volumes before file cabinets with this list of 1700s birth records digitized by the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania!

https://archive.org/details/recordofpennsylv00linn/page/782/mode/2up

That file cabinet that was such a boon to business soon became something that every person who had any sort of financial footprint needed to have in their house. The information in it wasn’t all vital, but there was stuff in there that could mean serious harm if they lost it… so file cabinets stayed important.

Into the Digital Background

File sharing, cloud storage and insanely cheap (relative to yesteryear) external storage abound today. Most people, however, still have that file cabinet in their house. That file cabinet may not be the shining example of technological progress anymore, but it still holds incredibly valuable documents.

Anyone who owns a house knows that there’s that packet you got at closing. We won’t blame you for not knowing what all is in there… but we all know that we need to keep it handy. Same with your car — your title is your certified proof of ownership. If you lose that, you’ll need a new one before you can register or insure your vehicle. Tax records have to be kept for years in case of an audit — business records even longer!

I open this file cabinet exactly 1 time a year. Please, find me a better way.

‘Wait a minute —’ you may be saying, ‘Some of those things aren’t paper anymore where I live!’.  You’d be correct. In fact, most of those things will likely be transitioning away from paper records very soon. With it, your file cabinet will likely get a lot more roomy on the inside. This can make you feel like that big ugly piece of furniture is a waste of space, but also that the standardized and safe place that you’ve put your records your whole life is gone. Whatever will you do!?

The Future of Vital Storage

The file cabinet didn’t just give us a way to organize and retrieve information for over 100 years. It also gave us an absolutely essential way to keep records safe. File cabinets were a place to keep our sensitive information, usually behind lock and key in an office or our home. Newer file cabinets are even fire resistant to protect your records in the event of a disaster. So what happens with all our digital records in the event of an equivalent digital disaster?

Traditionally cloud storage just doesn’t cut it for sensitive records. Do you know what this year is? The worst year ever for cybercrime. Do you know what last year was? Also the worst year ever for cybercrime. And it goes on like that, back to when cybercrime became a thing. Do you really want your tax records or financial documents on a cloud service that’s only as secure as its practices?

Now it’s blockchain’s time to shine. Blockchains are essentially decentralized databases. Databases are the digital equivalent of a file cabinet in terms of organization, recall and storage. Like with file cabinets, information on a database can be tagged, grouped and referenced easily. Blockchain, however, brings new advantages that traditional databases do not.

A blockchain is decentralized. On most chains, there’s no central authority that you have to rely on to ensure security or access. The chain can be accessed without a centralized portal and validation occurs by consensus between users, meaning no one has to direct the blockchain per se, it just keeps functioning off of the established logic and the consensus of its users.

Blockchains are also secure, while still having public transparency. You could, for example, use a blockchain file system to prove that you have had a certain document in your possession for a given period of time without having to unmask what the contents of that document are. The blockchain itself can serve as proof of when and how files are changed without actually giving away what those changes entail unless you have the document in hand to reference. In short, a blockchain can provide the same chain of ownership that physically possessing a document provides, while also creating a digital paper trail that proves possession and history as long as the document has been on the blockchain.

Mundane… but Massively Important

This may seem like small potatoes… but technological advancements sometimes feel that way until you think about all of their ramifications. There are hundreds of thousands of hours wasted in courts around the world every year to determine the validity of documents or to verify chain of custody. With a blockchain there wouldn’t be any reason to argue… all the data is there on the chain forever!

Again, it’s hard to say that this is the most glamorous or exciting use of blockchain technology… but it’s pretty dang useful. How we store and maintain necessary documents is ripe for disruption, and we do need a way that’s more suited to our modern situation.

We’ve all had all sorts of ideas for how blockchains could change the world. This one may not make headlines, but it’s important. The biggest changes don’t always seem like big changes until they totally alter the way we do business and approach life. 

The future is bright… and maybe it involves getting that ugly file cabinet out of your house and office sooner rather than later.

The Wisdom of the Crowd: The Rise of Decentralized Prediction Markets

The Wisdom of the Crowd: The Rise of Decentralized Prediction Markets

Have you been hearing a lot about prediction markets recently? You’re not alone. 

The concept of a prediction market has entered mainstream public consciousness in a big way lately. The viral success of sites like Polymarket during the recent US Presidential election has shined a spotlight on the concept, but prediction markets aren’t anything new. 

While there seems to be a much more widespread awareness of these systems, misunderstandings about them abound. In the article below we’ll take a look at exactly what a prediction market is, what it’s not and exactly how the process works. 

What Is a Prediction Market

A prediction market (sometimes referred to as a betting market or idea futures market) is a place where users can make predictions on the likely outcome of an unknown event. A correct prediction is typically incentivized with financial rewards, so that each participant is competing for correct predictions directly.

The structure of predictions are traditionally set to binary options, with each option being valued at its share of the “vote” placed on it. More complex options change the predicted likelihood in the same manner, just spread out across more possible predictions. 

How Prediction Markets Work

Prediction markets do not work like traditional betting pools on sports or other gaming. The value of any given prediction is only based on how many users relative to the total have predicted that specific outcome.

For a decentralized prediction market, it often works like this:

  1. You want to predict on a question, so you purchase $10 of “Yes”, which is currently at 25%.
  2. This means that you now have $10 of Yes tokens on that question, but there are 3x as many “No” tokens as there are Yes tokens. 
  3. If new developments cause people to buy Yes tokens, No tokens become relatively less valuable and “Yes” tokens become relatively more valuable.
  4. You may sell your “Yes” tokens before the issue is decided. If you bought when Yes was at 25% and sold when it was at 50%, the prediction you placed would double to $20.
  5. Once an issue is decided, that correct prediction has all the value from the question. If you have not sold and the final objective answer turns out to be Yes, your Yes tokens would be valued at $40.

A crucial misunderstanding about these platforms is that percentage chances do not indicate “odds” in a prediction market, as they would in traditional gambling. The likelihood shown instead indicates the number of predictions placed on that option versus other available options. This means that prediction markets aggregate the predictions of the crowd, rather than any odds based on objective facts.

Prediction markets are intended to tap into the “Wisdom of the Crowd Effect”. This phenomenon was first observed by Aristotle in his 350 BCE book, Politics, but statistician Francis Galton is widely credited with bringing it into the modern day. He observed in the early 20th century that often the median prediction of a crowd would be closer to the final result of an event than even qualified opinions.

“It is possible that the many, though not individually good men, yet when they come together may be better, not individually but collectively, than those who are so, just as public dinners to which many contribute are better than those supplied at one man’s cost”

-Aristotle, Politics

This doesn’t mean that prediction markets are always right. When people are betting on roulette, for instance, they can be confident that they have a 2.7% chance to hit any individual number (2.63% with a 00 wheel). This is based on the physics of the wheel and the high level of predictable randomness in roulette.

Prediction markets are only based on what the users of the platform are saying. If a given option is listed as 70% (Yes) and 30% (No), that just means that 70% of the funds used to predict on that question have chosen yes. This isn’t inherently bad, but it is wise to consider that these predictions are often vulnerable to manipulation, misunderstandings or cognitive biases within the users of the market.

Why Prediction Markets?

While it’s easy to dismiss prediction markets as just another type of gambling, they have applications that are far different from traditional gambling. Prediction markets have been used to glean insights for generations — typically in politics, business and investing.

The first widely known modern electronic prediction market was the Iowa Electronic Markets, established by The University of Iowa. This is run as a non-profit, and users can make predictions about elections or key economic indicators. This has been run continuously since the 1988 presidential election for research and education, and at times it has been more indicative of election results than polling.

The 1990s saw several prediction markets rise and fall, speculating on incredibly diverse issues across science, world events and culture. As the age of data began to rise, however, more entities started utilizing the powerful predictions used by aggregating median opinion.

Pharmaceutical companies and investors have noted that they often use internal prediction markets to forecast which new developments are likely to get through clinical trials. Google announced in 2005 that it uses internal predictions to forecast likely launch dates. Even the US Department of Defense had a short-lived project to use prediction markets from the public to indicate likely threat occurrences.

Into the Decentralized World

In the world of web3, prediction markets have understandably risen back to public prominence. Due to the nature of decentralization, these prediction markets can create a very wide benchmark on opinion. The choice/token structure of a prediction market is perfect for a blockchain, and smart contracts ensure a trustless exchange between platforms and users.

The first on-chain prediction market was Augur, created on Ethereum in 2018. While it received some use early in its lifetime, it quickly stagnated due to the lack of community in the web3 world and due to its sidestepping of regulatory agencies. Augur v2 would later release and revamp the concept as a totally decentralized and open source platform, but it has since faded into obscurity due to Ethereum gas prices and developers moving on. 

Polymarket’s launch on the Polygon blockchain in 2020 pushed prediction markets into the modern world. While Polymarket had early troubles with the Commodity Future Trading Commission (CFTC), they were able to resolve the issues and cooperate with commodity exchange regulations. While volume has receded sharply on the platform over the past several weeks, more than $3bn of total predictions have been placed on the site so far in 2024… much of it on questions focusing on the US presidential election.

Crucially, prediction markets have become somewhat self-sustaining in the era of blockchain. Users can propose questions and interact with a wider variety of prediction events than ever before. This is both good and bad. More data can provide us with more insights, but with the question end of the process more highly democratized, it’s far more possible to encounter leading or misleading questions without realizing it. Perception also does not always equal reality. The unavailability of reliable information or predictors failing to inform themselves can easily shift results.

Prediction markets aren’t perfect, but they do show us important things about the opinions of their users.Think of them as a different kind of poll, rather than objective truth or “odds”. While traditional polling on issues has low response rates and low participation, prediction markets incentivize participation. Since they incentivize being correct as well, they accurately show us a picture of what participants think is more likely. That’s not truth, but it’s good data.

Hopefully we’ve given you a little more insight into how prediction markets work and what they’re used for. Decentralization isn’t intuitive for most of us, and it’s almost like prediction markets were just web3 ahead of their time.

Because prediction markets originally were more about data than wagering, it can be incredibly insightful just to browse through predictions on issues even for those who have no plans on actually placing predictions. No one has built a prediction market on GalaChain yet, but if you do choose to engage with these platforms elsewhere, we hope this article has given you some crucial knowledge to help you do so safely and wisely.