Select Page
Thinking Poker: Hand Odds, Pot Odds and Implied Odds

Thinking Poker: Hand Odds, Pot Odds and Implied Odds

Alright, you’re all shuffled up and the cards have been dealt. You’re a master of reading other people, so you know you’ve got this. Suddenly, you realize that your powers of observational deduction don’t work quite right in online poker… whatever shall you do!? 

I’ll tell you what you’re going to do. You’re going to math harder than you’ve ever mathed before!

Odds and Playing the Math in Hold ‘Em

So we all know the poker player who plays with their feelings – “I’ve got a good feeling about that turn,” or “I can feel that he doesn’t have it.” That’s fun for tossing plastic chips around in your cousin’s basement over some beers, but I wouldn’t exactly call that a solid strategy when there’s real stakes.

Like most games, poker is based around complex systems of relatively simple math. What distinguishes poker from other games is the incomplete information factor. This is the main mechanic of the game. You know what you have, but everything else is a variable.

Think you can “feel” what other people’s cards are? Let’s review some facts from our last edition to dispel that illusion:

  • There are 1326 different possible combinations of hole cards you can be dealt in Hold ‘Em
  • There are 2,598,960 possible combinations the five cards on the table can be in as they are revealed
  • There are 9,122,409,676,719,740,029,270,368,190,464,000,000 (9.122 undecillion!) possible combinations for how the entire 23-card board could play out for a game with 9 players.

Still think you can play with your feelings? You’re playing the math whether you like it or not… embrace it!

Poker doesn’t have to be undecillion-level complicated though. With just a little learning and practice, you’ll be automatically weighing the chances of any hand you have with a surprising level of human-quality accuracy. The key is to always remember that there are waaaaay more ways that your hand can go wrong than it can go right.

Miss our last Thinking Poker? Check it out to have your mind blown by the not-quite-so-simple, traditional deck of cards.

Base Hand Odds

So you’re at a table with five other players in the hand. Your decision to fold, call or raise to see a flop. You’ve got A/K of hearts. Pretty confident about that? Let’s see where you’re at from an odds standpoint preflop:

Your A/K suited has the following chances of making a hand by the end of the river, not accounting for any other players:

  • High Card : 17.8%
  • One Pair : 44.1%
  • Two Pair : 22.3%
  • Three of a Kind :   4.2%
  • Straight :   2.9%
  • Flush :   6.2%
  • Full House :   2.3%
  • Four of a Kind :   0.1%
  • Straight Flush :   0.0%

With this hand matched against five totally unknown opponents, your hand has a 31% chance to come out on top. That is better than the 16.66% that would be an even distribution for you and 5 opponents.. 

A few things to note… That straight flush is at 0 from rounding. Keep in mind that a royal flush is just the highest straight flush. Yes, you have a gutshot royal flush draw – only if the 10 of hearts, the jack of hearts and the queen of hearts all hit the table. That’s a less than 1/1000 chance. The suited feels like it helps your odds a lot, but in the end having those matched suits is less than a 7% bump to your odds to make a decent hand.

In the above hand, you’ll be getting one pair or less in the likeliest circumstance. Think hard about how much that’s worth paying to see a flop.

Let’s look at the above hand again, this time in heads up play. There’s only you and one other player in the game and it’s your call whether to pay to see the flop.

Against a totally random hand in this circumstance, your A/K of hearts has a 66.1% chance to win. That is better than half, but it’s not quite the +11% over even odds that you had against 5 opponents. 

You’re also not playing against a “random” hand. A player has filtered their cards to a degree. They’ve bet and called, so they are at least signaling they don’t have junk. 

Pot Odds

Above, we were talking about straight odds to win. There is, however, another limited information mechanic in poker – the price. Throughout the game, you are put to a decision to add to the pot to stay in the hand repeatedly. This can be looked at as a price to stay in the game. Pot odds are what we call it when we weight this price versus hand equity or expected value.

Say you have a pair of 7s before the flop. There’s two other players in and there’s 800 chips in the pot. The decision is on you, and you can call for 200 chips to see the river. That means you’d be putting 20% of the value into the pot that you could prospectively win. There’s a table pair, and no possible draws on the board. There are two larger cards than your pair on the table.

Against two random hands, you have a 39.1% chance of taking down this pot after the river. You cannot, however, win if you don’t make it to the river or make everyone else fold. 

You know from your cards and odds against a random hand that you are likely to have the best chances of anyone else, unless someone hit that low set on the flop. You’re paying 20% of the potential hand winnings to get into the river, and you’re roughly sitting at a player equity of 6:4, or 40%. 

This means that you’re paying less than the perceived value of your hand to see the river. With your mathematical likelihood to win, you could conceivably call bets worth around 500 chips and still be on the right side of the numbers. Keep in mind, the pot gets bigger as you add more, thus diluting the pot odds argument and “pricing you in”, so to speak.

This is a good time to mention that “pricing you in” is an illusion. Remember the pot odds. Let’s say you’ve already paid 1000 chips to stay in a hand and there’s 5000 chips in the pot. The river has come, and you know that you have less than a 5% chance to win against random hands. Someone makes a small value bet of 400 chips (to puff up their pot probably!). If you have a 5% chance to win, paying 400 chips to see it through is a bad choice with only 5000 chips in the pot. You’d need ~8% chance to win to square those pot odds.

Already putting money into the pot does not mean you are priced in. Beware sunk cost… it’s the biggest weapon that the person with the winning hand has at their disposal to make you keep pushing over your chips!

Implied Odds

Let’s take this a step further. We know that pot odds are when you take the size of the pot into account versus the price of continuing in the game. Let’s move into something more abstract – implied odds.

Implied odds don’t only look at the pot and your chances versus a random hand. They are looking at the potential throughout the rest of the hand. Let’s look at another example.

You’ve got 10/J suited versus 5 opponents before the flop. You’re at about 24% chance to win… better than even 20% (1 of 5) odds! But wait! Someone’s going hard pre-flop… made hand? They throw down 900 chips into 100 chips of blinds. 3 callers, your decision. You’re now being asked to pay 900 into a 3700 chip pot to see the flop.  This is less relative price than your chance to win to see three more cards, so you jump in and call. But… the player on the button raises to triple! Only one caller. It now comes back to you at with another 1800 into a 9100 chip pot. You’ve got the odds on your side in isolation… but this is starting to feel like sunk cost. 

…or is it?

Let’s freeze in that moment. Someone made a ridiculously high bet off of just blinds… usually meaning that they have (or are representing they have) a medium pocket pair. They know they likely have the best hand preflop, but after more cards come out they probably won’t. That first player was probably trying to just buy the blinds, plus maybe some sucker that jumped in with trash. 

The second player, however, made a value bet. While their raise was high compared to previous bets, they knew that at least one or two players would feel obligated to call after already putting so much money in. This player is intentionally growing the pot bigger instead of trying to elicit folding. This usually means they think they have the winning hand, or it is very likely that they will be the time the river is flipped.

They are trying to price other players in with pot odds… make it so they simply can’t fold over such a small amount of chips relative to the size of the pot. If you call, you’ve paid 2700 chips to access around a ~10k chip pot. While it’s likely that this is worth it to see a flop with your upside chance of almost quadrupling your chips in the middle of the table, tread lightly. If your opponent understands pot odds, they may be keeping you on the hook and just building up their pot without scaring you away.

It’s important to keep in mind here that there are three cards on the flop. With a hand like 10/J suited, you’re likely to know whether you have a real hand or not after the flop. With the turn and river only being one card, be very cautious about following value bets to those cards. If you haven’t gotten a hand worth playing in the first five cards, it’s unlikely you’re going to make one with those last two. A good player who knows they have you beat will just bleed you the rest of the hand to grow their pot.

Simple Gameplay. Complex Nuance

Poker overall is a very simple game in concept, but the combination of playing card randomness and incomplete information makes it so a lifetime of playing poker would still not be enough for anyone to totally understand the nuance and intricacies of the game. 

In this article we’ve only scratched the surface of quick odds calculation in poker. Even knowing these few things though, you can estimate what’s worth it to you much better than just playing blind. Poker is about incomplete information… the more information you know about the game and theory, the less disadvantage you take from not knowing what’s in other players’ heads.

That’s all for us in this week’s Thinking Poker. We’ll be back in a few weeks to talk more about the fundamentals of all things poker!

Practice makes perfect… hit the tables today!
Play Now

My Name is Durax – I’ll Be Your Champion

My Name is Durax – I’ll Be Your Champion

Have you tested your battle skill in the Champions Arena lately? There is honor for the taking, glory for the worthy, and rewards for those who find triumph.

Gala warriors are called to play this RPG battle strategy game on either mobile or desktop, completely free. With a treasure trove of rewards that come in all shapes and sizes, Champions Arena is a non-stop strategic challenge for anyone who loves RPG combat!

Play Champions Arena Now

***

They call me Durax.

The wisest of my wimpy enemies run when they see me coming, knowing they’ll get a taste of my ax if they don’t.

Hands down, I’m the most powerful Orc around. I have bested all the other Orc Champions so many times that the thrill of Orc-on-Orc battle lost its thrill for me. Now I’m ready for a new challenge, which is why I’m ready to serve as your Champion in the Arena.

Where you go, I’ll go. I don’t love the idea of subservience to some interdimensional puppetmaster playing a game, but Gaimer tells me that’s the only way to unlock the secrets of the dark Rift of Chaos. Gainer is the glowing skull that sits atop my left shoulder. He loves the blood of enemies, and he insists that if we can reach the dark Rift, we will both grow immensely in power. Then the Champions Arena will be ours!

I suppose you want to know about my Skills!

My Normal Attack deals damage proportionate to 120% of my max HP to the target enemy, and with a card match, also has a 60% chance of Taunt.

My L2 Attack is called Grand Whirlwind, dealing damage proportionate to 135% max HPwith an automatic 60% chance of Stun. With a card match, the damage is increased, along with the chance of Stun!

My L3 Attack is the Durax signature, Death From Above, dealing 110% max HP damage to every enemy and increasing the damage to 130% with a card match!

My Passive Ability isn’t passive at all, but deals horrific damage to the entire enemy team whenever one of my allies falls. It’s called Slaughterfest. Basically, when an ally dies, it makes me really mad. I automatically perform Death From Above (out of turn), and I gain a nice stat boost with Extreme Fury. 

Think about it. If I’m the last Champion standing on your team, I most likely have performed Death From Above three times out of turn, smashing through the defenses of even the most accomplished enemy teams!

I know it’s tempting to want Champions with friendlier smiles and more charm, but I can tear a whole in every opponent you’ll face in the Arena.

Find me on the secondary market. Level me up and upgrade me and you’ll see.

Go ahead and ax yourself if Durax is right for your next Champion team!

Play Champions Arena now

New This Week in The Walking Dead: Empires Hero Card Sale – Jesus!

New This Week in The Walking Dead: Empires Hero Card Sale – Jesus!

Jesus is resourceful, sly and incredibly loyal to his friends. His morality and humanity helped restore a small sliver of civilization to the broken world –  a compassion that strengthened all the survivors around him. 

That’s the kind of survivor you need on your team to build  a new empire out of the ruins of the old world. And starting tomorrow, you can purchase Jesus directly in our next Hero sale!

Sale Details

The direct sale for Jesus kicks off on Friday, July 12th at 9pm PT. All rarities will be available in limited supply for this sale. Pick up any Hero Card to start playing as Jesus in The Walking Dead: Empires today.

This sale will continue until the supply for these Hero Cards has run out, or it is removed from the store to make room for other Heroes. In the case of removal, we’ll give you plenty of notice beforehand!

These Hero Cards fulfill directly to GalaChain once purchased.

Build the Future

The crafting event just started a few days ago. Plenty of time left to manufacture your empire. How high will you climb the leaderboards?

An empire doesn’t build itself… get out there and get crafting!

Survive and Rebuild

Jesus could be an important ally as you navigate the apocalypse. While many of your favorite Heroes are focused entirely on survival, Jesus thinks  about community and building a society… small actions that lead to big change over time. 

You, too, will need to think about the future and your people to build a successful empire.Build your empire with Jesus. Visit The Walking Dead: Empires Store tomorrow to recruit him to your team before it’s too late.

Play Now!

Version 1 Crafting | Project Cerberus

Version 1 Crafting | Project Cerberus

Buy VOX land for a limited time and get a 100% $GALA rebate!

Hey all! Let’s take a break from our meet the team entries to chat a bit about crafting. 

Yes, there is a reason you are collecting all those resources in V0.5! It’s not just about who has the biggest pile of wood and stone. 

The Crafting Hall

First we’ll take a look at our crafting space. Our little friends needed a place to put all their trinkets together so we built them a crafting hall. Unlike fantasy games with a “Ye Olde Blacksmithy”, we went a bit more modern with 3D printing machines. We figured that if VOX can have teleportation tech, 3D printing seemed like the way to go.

We have a new friend that lives here–Nuts McBolty– who will help players with the crafting process, overseeing any VOX or ProtoVOX that are spending their time here.

Why build a 3d environment for crafting? Well, we needed to start testing out crafting on landscape for V2. Being a small team we needed to do some R&D work around that, so we might as well combine it with the crafting development that was already happening. This allows part of the team to work out the 3D aspects for the next phase of the project– creating buildings and decoration– without affecting the current development of crafting. 

Crafting at its Core for Project Cerberus

In short, crafting is the ability to create items and eventually rooms, decorations and more!

  • Each Account will have a crafting button available in the Main Map UI that opens the players 3D Print Farm.
  • 1 Printing Station will initially be unlocked for each account.
  • Additional Printing Stations will be available to unlock.
  • Each station will have a level from 1-5.
  • Each station can craft 1 recipe at a time.
  • A worker slot will require that 1 worker is equipped in order for the Printing Station to function.

Those are the rules, so what can I make? For version 1, the list is limited, and we need your help to make sure the process works before we open up the catalog. Over time we will add more and more items to craft over time– some you can learn, some you can get as rewards and some you can purchase through the store. We will talk about the store in a later dev blog. 

With the game’s initial crafting system, you’ll have the ability to craft everything from powerups to more advanced crafting parts and even some surprises.  

So How Do I Craft?

First you go to the 3D room and Select a printer and add a VOX…

Select a recipe…

Print!

Collect!

It’s that simple!

Two other systems fold directly into crafting: The store (buy items needed for crafting)

and account leveling, which will allow players to unlock more advanced recipes. 

We will talk about those features in a future blog real soon! – The VOX Populi

GAMES – Legends Reborn – Deck Building 101

GAMES – Legends Reborn – Deck Building 101

The game has begun, legends! Have you taken your seat at the table?


Legends Reborn is not a complicated game to jump into… you can grab one of the pre-made decks and be having a blast at the tables right away after starting up the game for the first time. 

That having been said, there’s a lot of nuance to deck building for those who like to dig in deeper and grow their strategic chops. No one controls the hand you’re dealt… but you can control what goes into your deck.

Calling All First-Time Deck Crafters!

We recognize this may be a review for some of the legends out there. Don’t worry, higher level classes are on the way! 

We’ve talked about the crafting system and all the details of the economy, but we haven’t really gone over the basics of deck building since the game was in early development!

This will not do! We want to take a quick opportunity to walk folks through the basics before we dive deeper into strategy. 

If you haven’t played Legends Reborn much yet, but are ready to dive into deck building tactics, read on to learn how to craft your first decks!

Choosing Your Deck

From the main menu, you can select “Deck Editor” to hop right into refining your deck. You’ll notice that there are some preset selections in place. These are great starting points, and you should totally play around with these to get a feel for the style you like to play.

Once you’re ready to start your own destiny… choose to create a new deck and start lining up your strategy!

If you don’t have any cards, no need to worry! There are always time-limited cards available, and you can grab a free daily pack every day to pad your reserves!

Grab these free packs each day from the “Shop” on the main menu.

Deck Building Basics

Every deck starts with a Hero. This is you… the player of the card game. Not only are you choosing whose skin you’re playing behind, but you’re choosing an overarching theme for your deck.

Each Hero Card comes with five cards. These are special Hero-specific actions that you can take at critical moments throughout the match. They’ll often be game-changing if played right, so choose a Hero based on what you think will combo well with the deck you’re hoping to build.

After you select a Hero, it’s on to Creatures. In every deck you get six Creatures. Their stats will determine how your deck plays, so pay attention to which roles work out better for you so you can adapt in the future.

After Creatures, you’ll choose six Action Cards for each Creature in your deck. These Action Cards will be selected from a pool based on that creature’s combat role. These Action Cards are what you will draw from each time your Creatures attack. 

You want to choose Action Cards that synergize with each other, but also ones that complement several of your Creatures if possible. Remember, you never know what order you’ll draw cards in. You want as many opportunities to win as possible! 

Refining and Improving

Once you’ve selected all your cards, name your brand new deck and you can get to playing! You can click “Summary” from the deck builder menu to get an overview of your deck that you just made.

This summary will show you all your Creatures and you Hero, but crucially will let you quickly reference your Mana Curve. Take note of this. If you ever find yourself with too many high mana cards to play, you may need to switch out for some lower cost cards. Likewise, if you find yourself with just too much mana and no cards, then you probably need to get some higher cost Actions in there.

Don’t be worried if you don’t have too many choices the first time. Time limited free cards swap out frequently, so you can experiment with a lot of different cards over time. As you play, you’ll unlock more cards and also be able to pick up that free pack every day. Before you know it, you’ll not only have a lot of cards to choose from, but know how to use them all!

As we said above, we’ll be back later with some more advanced strategy – but get in and give building a deck a try today! 

If you’ve had experience with TCG deck building before, you know how engaging and fun the strategic customization can be. If you haven’t… well, you’re missing out! Luckily for you, Legends Reborn is free to hop into right now!

Play Today!